The most popular half year paper price probably ro

2022-08-20
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The paper price probably rose in half a year. Paper mill people: maybe it will rise suddenly

release date: Source: editor of carton micro vision industry: number of views of package: 1751 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: from April to may 2018, the base paper market staged another thrilling price rise, especially the corrugated paper with the largest role of u and O, whose price soared to nearly 6000 yuan/ton, which is rare. Carton paper and whiteboard also followed closely, with the price of packaging paper rising by more than 1000 yuan per ton, This is tantamount to the "big earthquake" in the packaging industry, which makes many corrugated packaging enterprises panic, unprepared, and even complain repeatedly

[China Packaging News] from April to may 2018, the base paper market experienced another thrilling price rise, especially the corrugated paper with the largest amount of packaging paper. The price soared to nearly 6000 yuan/ton, which is rare. Carton paper and whiteboard followed closely, and the packaging paper increased by more than 1000 yuan per ton, which is tantamount to the "great earthquake" of the packaging industry, which made many corrugated packaging enterprises panicked and unprepared, Even complain repeatedly

many corrugated packaging enterprises have a wait-and-see mentality after production consumption and do not replenish their inventory in time because the market price of base paper was stable and slightly reduced in March 2018, and they reserved some inventory before the Spring Festival in 2018. At the same time, most of them signed new packaging supply contracts in March. In April, they can only buy at high prices and sell at low prices, which is obviously a loss. This passive situation is "call every day should not, call the ground to be ineffective", can only rely on the strength of the enterprise itself. Many corrugated packaging enterprises shouted that "it is impossible to raise the price of base paper again", but they still joined the ranks of the rush to buy base paper. For a time, the base paper market was filled with gunsmoke, and a battle for base paper intensified. The vehicles delivered by the paper mill lined up day and night. Some enterprises remitted money a little later, and the base paper was sent to other customers, so they had to wait again

however, from late May to early June 2018, in order to avoid accidental injury or death, the price of base paper fell slightly, ranging from 50 to 80 yuan/ton. At this time, the hot base paper market has cooled, which makes some corrugated packaging enterprises wait and see, buy or not? Is the base paper up or down in the second half of the year

will the price of base paper plummet or soar in the next six months

in view of the slight decline in the price of base paper from late May to early June 2018, there are different opinions in the industry

some say that it may rise sharply as in 2017, followed by a sharp decline. The reason is: now the corrugated packaging enterprises are full of inventory, and the southern market has entered the off-season of packaging in June. Even in the northern market, where the packaging market is booming, due to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit held in early June, the production and manufacturing enterprises around Qingdao have been included in the production restriction and shutdown period. The demand for corrugated base paper is weak, and the inventories of paper mills have increased sharply, so they have to reduce prices to release the storage capacity

some say that the price of base paper may soar to a new high. The reason is: the corrugated packaging market looks flat, but it is actually depressed. A large amount of demand is covered up by the current superficial phenomenon of production suspension and production restriction. In the second half of the year, the manufacturing industry will experience more than two surges, and the demand for packaging materials is bound to soar. The stock of raw paper of corrugated packaging enterprises is generally about 3000 ~ 5000 tons, which is only the production consumption of less than two weeks. When the packaging orders increase rapidly, When the base paper soared

it is also said that it may remain at the current price. Even if it fluctuates or decreases, it will not exceed 100 yuan/ton. The reason is that the state has loosened the policy of importing "American waste", and the price of domestic waste paper has decreased to varying degrees. On May 25, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang, Shandong, Anhui and other places fell by 80 yuan or 150 yuan per ton. The continuous decline in the price of raw materials has reduced the cost of paper-making enterprises, and the price of natural base paper will also stabilize or decline

all kinds of analysis seem reasonable, but which one is in line with the market law? In other words, who is more realistic and reliable? Or is the price of base paper "true fall" or "false fall" in the next six months

paper mill: I don't know when the price will rise. Maybe the boss will rise

from late May to early June 2018, the price of base paper for packaging in various paper-making enterprises decreased to varying degrees. What about the price of base paper in the second half of the year? Recently, the author consulted several paper industry sales elites from nine dragons, Chenming, century sunshine, Shanying and Liwen on this issue. The answer is: we can't see the market clearly this month, let alone half a year

although this remark ridicules and mocks the volatility of the current base paper market, it also reveals the uncertainty of the base paper market. Everyone agrees that no matter whether there is uncertainty or not, there are rules to follow, and the base paper market is no exception. Analyze and judge the market situation of base paper. First, pay special attention to the raw material market of papermaking; Second, look at the national policy on the import of "solid waste"; Third, look at the demand of the packaging market; Fourth, when operating the fatigue testing machine, the electrical signal connected to the servo valve should be removed first. The sales strategy of the paper company; Fifth, look at the import volume of packaging paper

in terms of waste paper, recently, due to the decline of the national waste market index, the trend of national waste has declined as a whole. Although a small amount of quotas are gradually issued for subsequent batches of foreign waste, it is expected that there will be no complete shortage of import quotas for foreign waste. In addition, paper-making enterprises have also increased their R & D investment in the use of new materials, and crop straw, reeds, etc. have been able to replace waste paper as raw materials. As for whether the subsequent waste paper price will change, we can only wait and see

in the packaging market, in recent years, the corrugated packaging market has been on the rise, especially with the development of e-commerce, logistics, express delivery industry, even all kinds of vegetables, fruits and other agricultural products are also packaged in corrugated boxes. Comprehensive analysis shows that in the second half of 2018, the packaging market demand increased steadily, the production capacity of industrial enterprises using packaging materials continued to expand, and new manufacturing enterprises were also gradually increasing. In addition, various fruits and vegetables, grain and oil and other agricultural products grew well compared with 2017, and the rise of new high-tech farms around the country added fire to the booming packaging market. More importantly, export commodities suppressed by the "trade war" before May are expected to accelerate growth. This is undoubtedly very good for the packaging market, which is bound to increase the demand for packaging base paper

due to the shutdown and production restriction of the paper industry in some areas from late May to early June, the stock of base paper of paper-making enterprises is relatively reduced. In view of this situation, paper-making enterprises may launch a new round of price rise. As for whether 50 yuan or 100 yuan will continue to rise, or rise by hundreds at a time, or rise in place in one step, it depends on the guidance of the paper giant and the choice of the time to launch. If it rises to the strategic level, it should be called marketing strategy. In fact, to be more realistic, it is nothing more than to make up for the losses during the shutdown period. Isn't it a fool not to seize the opportunity to make money? As a person in the paper industry said: if you want to ask me when the price will rise, although I am the sales director, I don't know, and the company's senior management may not know. It's possible that the boss will raise the price once he opens his eyes in the morning! How much, maybe 100 yuan, maybe 500, 1000 yuan, it's impossible to say

the probability of price rise of packaging paper is high in the second half of the year

the instability of the price of packaging base paper has brought stimulation and pain to the industry, forcing packaging enterprises to cooperate with importers to import base paper. Because the import price is relatively lower than the domestic price, it is not only profitable, but also complements the gap in the domestic base paper market, and inhibits the continuous rise of base paper price to a certain extent, which is the advantage of imported packaging base paper. The disadvantage is that the logistics cycle is long, and the fastest time is about a month. However, from the perspective of the use of imported base paper, both the tensile strength, ring compression strength and bursting strength cannot be compared with domestic base paper. Therefore, the choice of imported base paper should be based on the characteristics of customers' needs. Customers with strict requirements must be careful to buy

in addition, in order to solve the shortage of raw materials and reduce costs, some paper enterprises choose to go abroad and set up paper mills abroad, such as Vietnam, Myanmar and other Southeast Asian countries. These countries not only have abundant bamboo and wood resources, but also have no restrictions on waste paper resources from Japan, the United States and Europe. More importantly, labor costs are low. At the same time, enterprises can also enjoy the support of the national the Belt and Road preferential policies. Obviously, this move is very conducive to stabilizing the domestic base paper price and alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand

the base paper for packaging may continue to rise from July to August, and may decrease slightly from September to October, and will continue to rise again from November to December. In short, the market price of packaging base paper will still be volatile. I hope friends in the industry can replenish inventory in time according to the business conditions and their own conditions, but it is not recommended to hoard a lot

finally, I would like to remind my friends to pay close attention to the relevant national policies and regulations on environmental protection and imported waste paper. At the same time, I should pay close attention to the production status and sales policy adjustment of the major paper giants, and strive to turn passivity into initiative

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